Simulation of the time course of an epidemics according to the statistical model developed by Reed and Frost

Prof. Andrea Bellelli

      This interactive simulation calculates the time course of an epidemics using the statistical - deterministic model developed by Lowell Reed and Wade Hampton Frost. The time scale of the simulation is measured in Serial Genration Times (SGT), defined as the average time required by a person who has been infected to become inefctious and to transmit the disease. Real values for SGT range between a few days and a few weeks; the user may assume SGT=1 week. The user may explore the effect of several variables; only the population size (in red) is required; for all other variables the program may use defaults.
Popolation size (required) 10.000 5.000 3.000 1.000
Number of potentially contagious contacts, per individual, during one SGT (default: 5; notice that this term corresoponds to the maximum theoretical value of the parameter R0 for the simulated epidemics): 10 5 2 1
Percentage of the members of the population who are immune because of vacination or because of a past epidemics by the same agent (default: 0%): 0% 30% 60% 90%
Percentage of the members of the population who present lower sensitivity to the disease (default: 0%) 0% 25% 50% 75%
Serial Generation Time at which containment measures are introduced (default: never)? mai 5 10 15
I want an explanation of the model of epidemics developed by Reed and Frost (default: no) yes no