Simulation of the time course of an epidemics according to the statistical model developed by Reed and Frost
Prof. Andrea Bellelli
UNIVERSITA' DI ROMA SAPIENZA
FACOLTA' DI FARMACIA E MEDICINA
This interactive simulation calculates the time course of an epidemics using the statistical - deterministic model developed by Lowell Reed and Wade Hampton Frost. The time scale of the simulation is measured in Serial Genration Times (SGT), defined as the average time required by a person who has been infected to become inefctious and to transmit the disease. Real values for SGT range between a few days and a few weeks; the user may assume SGT=1 week. The user may explore the effect of several variables; only the population size (in red) is required; for all other variables the program may use defaults.
Popolation size (required)
10.000
5.000
3.000
1.000
Number of potentially contagious contacts, per individual, during one SGT (default: 5; notice that this term corresoponds to the maximum theoretical value of the parameter R
0
for the simulated epidemics):
10
5
2
1
Percentage of the members of the population who are immune because of vacination or because of a past epidemics by the same agent (default: 0%):
0%
30%
60%
90%
Percentage of the members of the population who present lower sensitivity to the disease (default: 0%)
0%
25%
50%
75%
Serial Generation Time at which containment measures are introduced (default: never)?
mai
5
10
15
I want an explanation of the model of epidemics developed by Reed and Frost (default: no)
yes
no